Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,736$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(413 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,243.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 68.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,243.4\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $55$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(2.87 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58.3}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 57.9)}}\) (asimptote \(58.3\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $101$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $187,977$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(637 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,439,203.1}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 146.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,439,203.1\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,026$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(50.1 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,686.9}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 84.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,686.9\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $93,724$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,071$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(92.8 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,171.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 100.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,171.2\))
Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $51$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.96 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,178$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,379$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(225 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,183.0}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 85.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,183.0\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $182$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(10.2 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,916.5}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 184.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,916.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,236$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $74,035$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.35 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106,530.7}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 98.9)}}\) (asimptote \(106,530.7\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,280$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(76.6 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $50,652$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,421$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(35 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,458.0}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 127.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,458.0\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $16$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(0.288 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $751$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,827$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(14.9 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,942.8}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 86.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,942.8\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $129$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.79 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{132.2}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 72.8)}}\) (asimptote \(132.2\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,893$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $15,500$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,234.0}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 68.8)}}\) (asimptote \(15,234.0\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $946$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(184 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{946.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 51.5)}}\) (asimptote \(946.6\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,373$ on 2020-07-04
